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Conventional vs. new views of intelligence: Psychologists find that test takers who second-guess their answers usually have better outcomes with their revised answers. Defensive bolstering of prior positions? One of Philip Tetlocks big ideas* is that we are typically operating in one of three modes when expressing or receiving an idea. Political Science Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock Aaron Belkin Paperback Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 Copyright: 1997 Pages: 344 Size: 7.75 x 10 in. Decouple your identity from your beliefs. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. Prosecutors work well in a courtroom. Tetlock aims to provide an answer by analyzing the predictive methodologies of leaders and researching those that are most successful at accurately forecasting future events. Marie-Helene is against vaccines, but the child would benefit from a measles vaccine. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Lazaridis was brilliant and turned BlackBerry into a popular business tool. The stronger a persons belief, the more important the quality of the reasons or justifications. Its the habits we develop as we keep revising our drafts and the skills we build to keep learning., Chapter 10: Thats Not the Way Weve Always Done It. What might happen if its wrong? When were searching for happiness, we get too busy evaluating life to actually experience it.. We seek peak happiness (intensity), rather than small, steady positive happiness (frequency). Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful a Show EconTalk, Ep Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting - Dec 20, 2015 Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. This is the mindset of the scientist. During a spacewalk, Luca felt water in his helmet. [17][18] Tetlock uses the phrase "intuitive politician research program" to describe this line of work. Optimism and. The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin's 1950 essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox"). Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 Politician: It's no shock that "when we're in politician mode, we're trying to win the. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. Open their mind to the possibility they might be wrong and let them work their way to the solution. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician2nd battalion, 4th field artillery regiment. Philip Tetlock | Psychology Philip Tetlock Leonore Annenberg University Professor BA, University of British Columbia; PhD, Psychology, Yale University Office Location: Solomon Labs, 3720 Walnut St, Room C8 Email: tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu Phone: 215-746-8541 Website: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/ CV (url): De-biasing judgment and choice. Illustrative questions include "What is the chance that a member will withdraw from the European Union by a target date?" As Prosecutor, we automatically attack any ideas that don't f Terms in this set (50) freedom and equality. Instead of searching for reasons why we are right, search for reasons for why we are wrong. We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them. Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as Fox. Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. View being wrong as a good thing; an opportunity to learn something new. The first part considers rethinking at the individual level. Additionally, companies can enroll in virtual workshops to boost their forecasting capabilities.14. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas. and comparison of domestic politics across countries. Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Abstract Research on judgment and choice has been dominated by functionalist assumptions that depict people as either intuitive scientists animated. Present fewer reasons to support their case. [10][11], In a 1985 essay, Tetlock proposed that accountability is a key concept for linking the individual levels of analysis to the social-system levels of analysis. The Dunning-Kruger effect: Identifies the disconnect between competence and confidence. What do you want to be when you grow up? He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. Second thoughts on expert political judgment. capitalism and communism. Contact: Philip Tetlock, (614) 292-1571; Tetlock.1@osu.edu Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu. Rational models of human behavior aim to predict, possibly control, humans. ", "From the commercial to the communal: Reframing taboo trade-offs in religious and pharmaceutical marketing", "Detecting and punishing unconscious bias", "Tetlock, P.E., Armor, D., & Peterson, R. (1994). It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," has dedicated his career to answering. Home; About. Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Hypotheses have as much of a place in our lives as they do in the lab. Thoughtful self-critical analysis? How Do We Know? Some smokejumpers held on to their equipment (as they were trained to do) despite the added weight (possibly) preventing them from surviving. He dubbed these people superforecasters. Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. Only one side can be right because there is only one truth. And if you absolutely mustand you better have a good reasondisobey them., The Government-funded research of the Good Judgment Project has manifested into a public platform called Good Judgment Open, where they recruit talented people to be trained to become a superforecaster.13They also have a global network of superforecasters who offer analytic services. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). Synopsis. [16], In addition to his work on the bias-attenuating versus bias-amplifying effects of accountability, Tetlock has explored the political dimensions of accountability. How do we know what we know, and how do we know if were right? The attack on Osama bin Ladens compound employed red teams and statistical risk assessments before the operation; whereas, the battle of the Bay of Pigs was undone by a failure to employ targeted questioning.5, When the scientist tells you he does not know the answer, he is an ignorant man. He argues that most political psychologists tacitly assume that, relative to political science, psychology is the more basic discipline in their hybrid field. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, He is the author of three books: Expert Political Judgment: How We dont know what might motivate someone else to change, but were generally eager to find out., Gentle recommendations that allow the other person to maintain agency are offered like: Here are a few things that have helped medo you think any of them might work for you?. It starts with showing more interest in other peoples interests rather than trying to judge their status or prove our own., Many communicators try to make themselves look smart. (2000). This book fills that need. Get these quick-to-read conversation starters in your inbox every morning. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. Performance accountability evaluates projects, individuals and teams based on outcomes. We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. Focusing on results might be good for short-term performance, but it can be an obstacle to long-term learning.. Our mini internal dictator. How Can We Know? Present schooling still relies heavily on the lecture. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. 1 Department of Political Science, George Washington University, 2201 G. Street NW, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: jimg@gwu.edu; 2 Departments of Psychology and Political Science, Ohio State University, 142 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43210; e-mail: tetlock.1@osu.edu. When we dedicate ourselves to a plan and it isnt going as we hoped, our first instinct isnt usually to rethink it. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. We routinely fall into one or more of these roles when we engage with others and in our solitary conversations with ourselves. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. There are two primary models, the cognitive model that treats behavior as implicit, and the behavioral model that treats . Weak arguments dilute strong ones. Expert Political Judgment. He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. GET BOOK > "Everyone who plays poker knows you can either fold, call, or raise [a bet]. Opening story: Columbia Universitys Difficult Conversations Lab. I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for . Professor Philip Tetlock reveals the gripping story of superforecasters - ordinary people with real, demonstrable abilities in successfully predicting the future - and how we can . Jason Zweig ofThe Wall Street Journalcalls it the most important book on decision making since Daniel KahnemansThinking, Fast and Slow, which, in the area of behavioral economics, is very high praise indeed. Make a list of conditions in which your forecast holds true. The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers. There is a tension, if not contradiction, between the positions taken in the Good Judgment Project and those that Tetlock took in his earlier book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Study: Typically, researchers report new findings in scholarly journals and Tetlock (1998, 1999) has done so for of some part of the findings of his study. Conservatives are more receptive to climate science that involves green-tech innovation than those that entail restrictions (e.g. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. But we rarely question or consider this knowledge which includes beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and prejudices. Philip Tetlock is currently the Annenberge University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. Researchers in the 20th century reported similar findings: patients unaware of their situation and unable to learn from experience. ), Research in organizational behavior (vol. Relationship conflict: Personal feuds and arguments (e.g. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person., Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Masters degree in 1976.8He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979.9Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in management, psychology, and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, the Ohio State University, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he is a current faculty member.10Broadly, his research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.11, In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas. Tetlock, P. E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., &Rescober, P. (2007). But when the iPhone was released, Lazaridis failed to change his thinking to respond to a rapidly changing mobile device market. Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. These include beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and more. Be careful to avoid letting task conflict turn into relationship conflict. (2011). jack the ripper documentary channel 5 / ravelry crochet leg warmers / philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? Tetlock and Mellers[10] see forecasting tournaments as a possible mechanism for helping intelligence agencies escape from blame-game (or accountability) ping-pong in which agencies find themselves whipsawed between clashing critiques that they were either too slow to issue warnings (false negatives such as 9/11) and too fast to issue warnings (false positives). Through consultations and workshops, Tetlock and his colleagues have been working to improve decision-making by promoting the qualities necessary to accurately foresee the outcomes of certain decisions. The concept of superforecasters was developed by The Good Judgment Project and is arguably their best-known discovery. The others might not agree with those arguments, but they are left defenseless and bitter. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. The tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, especially on longerrange forecasts three to five years out. Its a set of skills in asking and responding. Because of this they remain curious and flexible, always seeking the truth. [14] In a 2009 essay, Tetlock argues that much is still unknown about how psychologically deep the effects of accountability runfor instance, whether it is or is not possible to check automatic or implicit association-based biases,[15] a topic with legal implications for companies in employment discrimination class actions. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. Everyone carries cognitive tools that are regularly used and seldom questioned or subject to reflection or scrutiny. Additionally, Good Judgment offers consulting services that are incredibly valuable for policymakers, who need to anticipate the global consequences of their decisions.7, Foresight isnt a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It requires us to admit that the facts may have changed, that what was once right may now be wrong.. Different physical jobs call for different tools. He struck up a conversation with a white man who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know by Adam Grant (2021) is a new addition to the growing body of mainstream books about mental blindspots, cognitive biases, and thinking errors. These findings were reported widely in the media and came to the attention of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) inside the United States intelligence communitya fact that was partly responsible for the 2011 launch of a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament that engaged tens of thousands of forecasters and drew over one million forecasts across roughly 500 questions of relevance to U.S. national security, broadly defined. So argues Wharton professor Adam Grant in a fascinating new interview. The book also profiles several "superforecasters." And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. When our 'sacred' beliefs are in jeopardy, we 'deliver sermons' to protect and promote our ideals. Accountability is a multidimensional concept. With appointments in the School of Arts & Sciences and the Wharton School, Tetlock works at the intersection of political science, psychology, and management science. Different physical jobs call for different tools. Opening story: Mike Lazaridis, the founder of the BlackBerry smartphone. [12][13] In his earlier work in this area, he showed that some forms of accountability can make humans more thoughtful and constructively self-critical (reducing the likelihood of biases or errors), whereas other forms of accountability can make us more rigid and defensive (mobilizing mental effort to defend previous positions and to criticize critics). When were in prosecution mode, we actively attack the ideas of others in an effort to win an argument. the usefulness of hypothetical-society experiments in disentangling fact and value judgments of the impact of competing policy proposals. Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. Whats the best way to find those out? Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know. In order to develop The Good Judgment Project, Tetlock worked alongside Barbara Mellers, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. This mindset embraces Grants idea of rethinking. This is especially troubling for people like policymakers, whose decisions affect entire populations. Grant recommends a fourth role to offset those found in Tetlocks model. Philip Tetlock's Edge Bio Page [46.50 minutes] INTRODUCTION by Daniel Kahneman Walk into Your Mind. After publishing this study in 2005, he spent years attempting to uncover what sets these superforecasters apart.1Research into superforecasters was conducted by The Good Judgment Project, an initiative Tetlock founded with Barbara Mellers, a colleague from the University of Pennsylvania.2The research Tetlock and his team conducted demonstrated that the key attributes of a superforecaster are teamwork, thinking in terms of probabilities, drawing knowledge from a variety of sources, and willingness to own up to their mistakes and take a different approach.3, Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most., Philip Tetlock inSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Superforecasters have been shown to be so impressive in their ability to forecast future outcomes that they have outperformed highly trained intelligence analysts who have access to classified information that the superforecasters do not.4In their 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner trace patterns in forecasting through history. Isaac Asimov: Great discoveries often begin not with Eureka! but with Thats funny. Logic bully: Someone who overwhelms others with rational arguments. The more pessimistic tone of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and optimistic tone of Superforecasting (2015) reflects less a shift in Tetlocks views on the feasibility of forecasting than it does the different sources of data in the two projects. The three modes (and a quick explanation of each) are: Preacher - we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting our ideals as sacred Prosecutor - we will pick apart the logic of the opposition's idea to prove our own point, marshaling the flaws in others [34][35][36][37] Tetlock has also co-authored papers on the value of ideological diversity in psychological and social science research. Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). Tetlock P. and Mellers B. He stubbornly clung to the idea that people wouldnt want to use smartphones for games, entertainment, and other tasks (beyond email, phone calls, and texting). Youre expected to doubt what you know, be curious about what you dont know, and update your views based on new data.. Affirming the persons desire and ability to change. Armchair quarterback syndrome: Phenomenon where confidence exceeds competence. Values are core principles like excellence, generosity, freedom, fairness, integrity, etc. Tetlock describes the profiles of various superforecasters and the attributes they share in the book he wrote alongside Dan Gardner,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim.. The spotlight here is on a fundamental question in political theory: who should get what from whom, when, how, and why? Grants solution is an idea he calls rethinking. Rethinking is the process of doubting what you know, being curious about what you dont know, and updating your thinking based on new evidence (in other words, the scientific method). Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson Fail the Implicit Association Test?" Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. What leads you to that assumption? Such research, he says, can "deepen our understanding of how to generate realistic . How Can We Know? Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. Dont try to politic a prosecutor, and be very careful if prosecuting a popular politician. The most confident are often the least competent. People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility. Most people believe (wrongly) that preaching with passion and conviction is the best way to persuade others. the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals. Required fields are marked *. Skeptics are those who dont believe everything they hear. I hate you!). Grit is essential for motivation (passion and perseverance), but it can also blind us to rethinking. The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a "dart-throwing chimp," and they are routinely surpassed by normal news-attentive citizens. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. Presumes the world is divided into two sides: believers and non-believers. The team was inserted into challenging conditions and the fire quickly overtook them. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Thinking like a politicianseeking to please otherscan lead us astray. What he found is that a person who is knowledgeable in a variety of areas is a better forecaster than a person who has an in-depth, but extremely narrow area of expertise. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious).